According to Global Consumer Confidence Survey by Nielsen, Vietnam’s Consumer Confidence Index reached 122 points, ranked fourth in the list of the most optimistic countries in the world. This challenge is likely to continue in the coming year with limited new supply in central business district.
Leveraging opportunities from stable domestic demand and increasing foreign interest, especially in HCMC and Hanoi is rising due to high pace of urbanisation. Additionally, the steady growth of population average 2% per annum each city as seen over the past five years will drive constant housing demand.
Vietnam’s two largest metropolitan areas expect to welcome a wave of new supply, of mostly Grade B offices, in 2019. The expected supply growth in 2019 of 13% and 11% in HCMC and Hanoi, respectively, will shake the office market for the first time after a quiet period.
The US’s economy keep growing although problems have arisen from the trade war against china. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China can be a way out for them although Chinese trades in the planned region will be hampered by US’s companies movements into these countries. China’s dream of expanding its trade empire could be stopped in the next 5 years.
Vietnam's economy retains the growth momentum, real estate market prices in HCMC were stable q-o-q across all segments "Except Office Leasing Grade A". A slight decrease in selling price in USD term was due to the VND devaluation recently. Supply in villas and townhouses are expected to remain scarce to end 2018
In the last quarter of 2018, the market will continue the upbeat trends with new projects in the CBD and the West. Besides, new large-scale projects will be launched in Q4 2018, the sold units and office leasing are expected to increase accordingly thanks to strong demand from both end-users and investors, local buyers and foreign buyers.
Many key developers are still very optimistic about the future of vacation property sector. According to Mr. Le Minh Dung, Vice Managing Director of BIM Group, Vietnam recently was ranked among top 10 fastest-growing tourist destinations by United Nations World Tourism Organization.
The supply of retail space in the CBD area continues to be limited because there was not much progress made on the construction of most future supply and the launch dates of some were delayed until next year.
In Q2 2018 the HCMC market welcomed an additional 6,109 condominium units, a decrease of 36% y-o-y. However new launch supply for 1H 2018 still increased 5% compared to 1H 2017. Mid-end segment witnessed the biggest decrease in new launch in Q2, down 62% q-o-q and 52% y-o-y.
There was no new supply on the office markets in HCMC in Q2 2018. Amid stability in supply, average asking rents, as well as occupancy rates, especially for HCMC. Looking forward to the rest of 2018, the office market continues to be landlord-driven for HCMC.
The Vietnam economy continued to achieve an impressive growth in the second quarter of 2018. Vietnam’s GDP increased by 6.79% y-o-y in Q2 2018 and 7.08% y-o-y in the first half of the year, and it is the highest growth observed in the last eight years.
Only 7% of total retail supply in Hanoi is located in CBD. 2018 is expected to be an active year in Hanoi retail coming from eight under-development projects. This is the largest number of new projects ever planned for a single year. Hence, new supply causing pressure on the vacancy rate, the landlords should save larger space for anchor tenants as well as increasing the number of anchor tenants. More importantly, high-impact tenants whose products generate intense word-of-mouth marketing online should receive preferential terms.